Sunday, October 5, 2008

Bonds - another indicator of deflation

I have been impatiently waiting for the long bond to break down and signal higher rates for the future. The fact that it just isn't happening solidifies my belief that we will have a deflationary-type period for at least 1-3 years. The long-term chart below demonstrates the current 30 year bond rate cycle versus the last one in the U.S.

I stole this chart but I don't remember where from so I can't give proper credit.

Remember, the bond market is larger than the stock market and is supposed to have more "sophisticated" investors. The 90-day T-bill has been under 1% for a while now, which is suggesting anything BUT inflation.

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