Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Is Mr. VIX looking to cause some trouble?
'Cuz I get that sense when I look at a 6 month chart of the Volatility Index ($VIX).
It's amazing to me that we are threatening to break the November panic lows in the Dow and S&P and yet investors are much less "scared" now. This is actually a bearish sign. The more fear/the higher the $VIX goes, the less likely the downward move is sustainable. It looks like it's going to take a decisive break below the fall lows for the major indices to get people scared enough that the next bear market rally can get going.
This is peoples' adjustment to a bear market in real-time. A price that before seemed ridiculous no longer seems that way after a while. Remember $140 oil? Remember NASDAQ 5000? Now think the same thing in reverse. Think S&P 500 at 500 can't happen? Think gold at $2000 can't happen? Think again.
I think, at a minimum, the $VIX needs to re-test the highs made at the end of January (57.5 level) before we stop plunging - and it could easily go higher.