Sunday, August 2, 2009
Gold Fractal - Current Correction
Fractals or patterns in market prices repeat because they are a reflection of human behavior, which hasn't changed much last time I checked. I often look for fractals as guidelines to what's possible in a stock price pattern. The current Gold price correction is shown below in a 2 year daily line chart with the 200 day moving average drawn in:
Now here's a similar correction in the price of Gold from 2002 using a daily line chart with the 50 day moving average drawn in:
The current correction is larger in terms of magnitude (i.e. percentage and time) but has a similar pattern and proportions compared with the one in 2002. This is the essence of a fractal pattern. Now history rarely repeats exactly, but it often rhymes. Below is what happened next in 2002:
I am looking for one more quick short-term spike lower to shake out a few weak hands and present one last great buying opportunity in Gold stocks this month before a strong move higher into the fall. I am thinking that the price of Gold will likely remain relatively firm and only dip mildly (no lower than the 200 day moving average at $880) while the senior Gold mining stock indices briefly spike significantly lower, setting up a divergence that is to be bought. Looks like the US Dollar is going for one more short-term spike lower, which is a buying opportunity for those into trading fiat currencies.