Thursday, May 20, 2010
Trying to Ride One More Wave in Gold
From euphoria to despair and fear fairly quickly. I couldn't resist taking final profits on my stock market shorts with this morning's drop. I think the set up here in the Gold patch is similar to November of 2009. Since I think the stock market is set up to start a short term rally soon, the background will be supportive for another thrust higher in Gold and Gold stocks.
I am sticking with paper Gold (the double bullish UGL ETF) for now, and added heavily to my position on this morning's weakness. The following charts explain why. This is just short-term trading/casino stuff. Sorry I don't have anything more profound for you. Here's a 1 year candlestick 60 minute intraday chart of the GLD ETF to show what I am thinking in terms of the Gold price:
And Gold stocks are suggesting the end of days is here in their typical dramatic fashion, but is it the end or a short-term buying opportunity? Following is a similar chart to the one above (1 year candlestick 60 minute intraday chart) showing the GDX ETF instead of GLD:
I am sticking with a double bull Gold price ETF for this anticipated move higher in my trading account, as I don't think Gold stock indices will outperform the Gold price by a factor greater than 2, though they may well make a slightly higher high compared with the mid-May peak. If they can only double top and don't make a new high with Gold, that would be a very bad sign for the intermediate term. We shall see.