Thursday, April 30, 2009
will bring May flowers, but only if one is a bear...
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Advance-Decline line has just about reached it's limit. I'd give it another 2 weeks max and this thing's heading down and taking the stock market with it. Here's a 2 year 6 month daily cumulative chart:
Supportive data - the bond market. Yield curve steepening (i.e. long term yields higher than short term yields, usually expressed as the ten or 30 year yield divided by the 90 day, 1 year, or 2 year yield) is indicative of economic contraction. Here's a 3 year chart of the ten year government bond yield divided by the 2 year yield (I usually use 10 year divided by 90 day T bill yield, but this ratio has become almost meaningless with 90 day yield under 0.5%):
Bulls, protect or take profits. Bears, sharpen your claws and get ready. Gold bugs - continue to stand aside and hold your Gold.