Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Big picture - our beloved currency.
Old Uncle Buck, the U.S. Dollar, has a value derived from the global popularity and perceived strength and safety of the United States. The U.S. Dollar Index long-term multi-decade chart screams only one thing: "get out now while the gettin' is still good." Trade in some of your paper fiat dollars for physical Gold, the best form of money humans have discovered after trying many different options over thousands of years in multiple societies.
There's short-term trading and then there's long-term horizon "big thinking" to keep the shorter term moves in perspective and protect what you've managed to accumulate. The U.S. Dollar is in trouble, current strength aside. Deflationary forces right now are powerful and have not abated. This is keeping the Dollar afloat. But the U.S. Dollar chart is telling a story that most Americans don't want to hear or accept: after losing even more of their paper wealth invested in real estate, high-end consumer goods and the stock market over the next year, most Americans are then going to face a strong and fast round of currency devaluation. What percent of Americans even know what happened to their currency at the bottom of the stock bear market in 1933?
Anyhoo, the following roughly 20 year monthly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index tells the story better than I can (as usual):
The break of the critical 80 "neckline" level in the head and shoulders pattern in the long-term U.S. Dollar Index chart suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index is going below 55. It took 3 years to go from 120 to 80 (i.e., 2002 to 2005) and it will probably take 3 years or less to go from 80 to less than 55. The current developing terminal wedge pattern is seen at the end of corrective patterns and could (and probably will) last several more months. However, this final portion of the upward correction of the longer-term bear trend for the U.S. Dollar will likely complete before 2009 does.
Gold will protect you thru the rest of this bear market and the subsequent currency devaluation that will occur once this deflationary bear market is over. The next stage of the Gold bull market will make rapid parabolic moves that will carry the Gold price to $2000/ounce and likely far beyond. Day to day fluctuations aside, Gold remains the only no-brainer investment for those looking to be bullish/go long and it is safe, free from counterparty risk and cannot vanish like paper investments and corporations because it has intrinsic value as real and true money. Having at least 10% of your long-term savings/investment money in physical Gold is wise at this stage of the game.