Friday, May 22, 2009
They actually are ringing a bell at the top
though you have to know what it sounds like to recognize it. I am as uber-bearish as ever on general markets and plan to profit from the chaos like a greedy little capitalist pig. I have previously delved into the reasons why the rally was almost over and now I believe it is over. I expect reality and common sense to return over the long holiday weekend. As for the bell ringing at the top, it is related to the $VIX bottoming on a weekly chart with a very bullish candle (market hasn't closed yet at the time I am writing this and following is an 18 month log scale weekly candlestick chart):
Other indicators are supportive and allow one to be ready to hear the loudly ringing bell, starting with the NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI):
A similarly positioned $NYA50R warns bears that the time to get short is already past its prime for many individual stocks:
I believe it is time to revisit hell (i.e. 666 on the S&P 500) before mid-August is here - these lows may hold or we may breach them slightly, then I see a boring and weak summer bounce to set up another nasty plunge this fall. Unlike most, I believe all of the action in general equities has been corrective since the November 2008 crash lows. I think those looking at the current rally as the first wave up in a big correction are wrong and that we have just witnessed the end of the final leg up in a 3-legged correction that began in November 2008. Happy days are here again for the bears IMO. Are you ready?