Sunday, March 28, 2010
Things are as bullish as ever in the Gold market. I continue to believe that we are on the threshold of a major move higher in Gold and Gold stocks and that the fall was just a warm up. The correction has certainly dragged on longer than I thought it would, but Gold is simply building a bigger and stronger base for a more powerful upward move in my opinion.
Unlike most, I see Gold and Gold stocks launching higher and I think the general stock market will be falling during this time. It happened in 2007-March 2008, the 2001-early 2003 time frame, 1973-1974 and 1930-1932. In other words, Gold and Gold stocks' biggest cyclical bull market moves in the last century were during nasty bear markets. All those who say Gold stocks are going to fall with the general markets are thinking only of the Great Fall Panic of 2008 and forgetting the illustrious history of Gold during secular stock bear markets like the one we are in now.
I think Gold is on the threshold here and remain wildly bullish at current price levels for both Gold and Gold stocks. The current look and "feel" of our current situation reminds me of the summer of 2007. Markets are likely in a topping out process with everyone looking at the exits but hoping for a few percent more of gains out of the stock market. Everyone knows economies are in trouble but many are still fully invested, planning on exiting at the first major sign of a price break in the general markets. Just as in the summer of 2007, there was proof all around that Gold was not performing well and would be no safe haven if a bear market were to strike. Blah, blah, blah. Here's what actually happened:
There were some big down days in Gold right before the move higher in 2007 that scared many retail investors off and triggered many stop loss orders, to be sure. Here's a daily chart of the action in 2007 right before the big bull run from the mid-600s to the $1030 level:
The foreign physical markets are getting tight in Gold again, always a good sign. The U.S. Dollar is strenuously overbought and yet Gold has held its ground in U.S. Dollar terms. The long end of the U.S. bond market looks like it wants to break down over the short to intermediate term. Everything is lined up for a big bull run in Gold, the ultimate money. Someone accused me of being a Gold cheerleader the other day - Lord knows we could use a few more in this mad paperbug world. From my point of view, why would one not be a Gold cheerleader during a secular Gold bull market after a healthy correction?