Monday, June 14, 2010
So Bearish on Stocks, My Teeth Hurt
Probably from all that black bile bearishness I've had sloshing around in my gut lately. We hit my "ideal" topping zone today in commercial real estate, so I loaded my little lifeboat with a lot more puts today on the triple bullish DRN ETF. I also bought many more puts on the triple bullish UPRO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500.
Continued warning signs today. The TED spread had another ramp higher today. Short-end government debt yields collapsed again today. Zerohedge posted how European banks are parking all their money with the ECB instead of trusting each other. The S&P 500 hit its 200 day moving average today for the third time in as many weeks and failed at this all-important technical analysis line.
Another one or two day wonder wouldn't surprise me during options expiration week, which is why I still have a little dry powder left in my kamikaze bear trading account. Such a scenario would allow us to fill the gap in the $VIX before we crap (we came close today).
"Dollar down, stocks up" didn't quite work out as the bulls had hoped today and I think a lot of bullish correlations may be breaking down shortly. Over the short to intermediate term, the only thing I am bullish on is physical Gold held outside the financial system. Around mid-summer, I hope Mr. Market will present me with an opportunity to return to the bullish camp on Gold stocks. In the mean time, I am heavily short paperbugs.