Monday, June 14, 2010

So Bearish on Stocks, My Teeth Hurt

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Probably from all that black bile bearishness I've had sloshing around in my gut lately. We hit my "ideal" topping zone today in commercial real estate, so I loaded my little lifeboat with a lot more puts today on the triple bullish DRN ETF. I also bought many more puts on the triple bullish UPRO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500.

Continued warning signs today. The TED spread had another ramp higher today. Short-end government debt yields collapsed again today. Zerohedge posted how European banks are parking all their money with the ECB instead of trusting each other. The S&P 500 hit its 200 day moving average today for the third time in as many weeks and failed at this all-important technical analysis line.

Another one or two day wonder wouldn't surprise me during options expiration week, which is why I still have a little dry powder left in my kamikaze bear trading account. Such a scenario would allow us to fill the gap in the $VIX before we crap (we came close today).

"Dollar down, stocks up" didn't quite work out as the bulls had hoped today and I think a lot of bullish correlations may be breaking down shortly. Over the short to intermediate term, the only thing I am bullish on is physical Gold held outside the financial system. Around mid-summer, I hope Mr. Market will present me with an opportunity to return to the bullish camp on Gold stocks. In the mean time, I am heavily short paperbugs.



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