Monday, June 22, 2009
Gold bottoming
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I think Gold is just about done correcting. I am expecting the bottom to come in between $900-$920/ounce and I think there's a good chance it will happen this week. Gold anywhere under $920 is a great buying point for investors.
In the bullish scenario, Gold just bottomed this morning. I would rather see a panic spike down into the $900-$910 range to shake out a few more weak hands and cement the bullish case. Those who hold the most Gold know how to run the weak bulls out so that they can pick up a few more cheap ounces for themselves before the next bull run.
Once this week is over, I think Gold makes a run for the $1000/ounce mark again and this time, new highs in the Gold price are more likely than not. I also think Royal Gold (ticker: RGLD) is about to explode upward with the Gold price. This is also why I think a double top in the senior Gold miners is not out of the question. But before the bull gets too frothy again, remember: if the price of Gold makes new highs and the senior Gold mining stocks don't, this is an indication to sell/avoid Gold miners for the intermediate term, not buy them. All stocks have trouble making new highs during a bear market leg down in the general stock market indices and one has already begun.
This just sets up patient Gold stock investors and speculators with another buying opportunity. Be patient and make more money with less stress (i.e. buy low so you can more easily sell high).
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7 comments:
Adam,
So do you recommend going to cash/short positions in anticipation of the market downturn? Including 401k balances? Remove them from mutual funds and just leave them as cash?
Thanks
What do you make of the following analysis particularly as it pertains to miners:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-GLD-silver-gdx-slv-gdm/index/a/23210
Your wise words are appreciated, as always.
I just have one question - what if the senior miners do make new highs along with the price of Gold?
A new reader to your blog. Just like to say that I great like your market/gold analysis.
Your writings/views remind me of Mr Bob Hoye who are beleives in a Deflationary Depression.
http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Bob+Hoye
The Automatic Earth and "Of Two Minds" are another two great market news resources.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-17-2009-40-ways-to-lose-your.html
P.S. For this intermediate decline in SPX, do you have a target low? As in retest of the March low of 666 or break to new lows?
Anonymous 1st comment:
Yes, I would be in cash or cash equivalent mutual fund if cash is not an option.
Anonymous 2nd comment:
I think bottom of "A" wave may be present and thus a "B" wave bounce is imminent but I don't think this is a good buying point for senior Gold stocks.
GG:
Then I am way off and I need to re-think my predictions. No guarantees in life or markets, eh?
Vorlon:
I read everything of Bob Hoye's I can get my hands on and he has had a huge influence on my thinking. I think re-test November crash lows (i.e. 750 S&P) at a minimum and new lows are possible - I'd say 650-750 range is reasonable target and should occur before mid-August, then a bounce into early fall, then another leg down.
I agree that gold stocks will get a pop this week but I think your original assessment of a final low a few weeks away was correct. I don't see this as the final low prior to hitting $1,000. Always enjoy reading your comments . . great site.
What do you think about the GLD etf? Is that something safe to invest in gold? Still wait until it is below 90.20?
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