Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The Stock Market Top Is In
It's official: Gold Versus Paper is calling the top in the stock market (I think it was yesterday and today confirmed it). The only caveat is that I'm calling the exact day only in the New York Stock Exchange ($NYSE) and Wilshire 5000 Index ($WLSH) for now, as the shenanigans of da boyz in pumping before the ultimate dump means the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average may take an extra day to fall in line. The two indices I'm using to call the exact day of the top (yesterday, June 2nd, 2009) are less subject to "tape painting" as they are not discussed on CNBC/MSNBC/Mad Money/Bloomberg/Yahoo! Finance/etc.
I believe we have seen the highs for the year in the stock market on a closing basis and next comes a re-test of the March lows before mid-August (i.e. at least a 25-30% drop in less than 12 weeks). General stocks, corporate bonds and commodities are going to get shellacked. Gold is money so it will hold up well like a strong currency should and Gold will NOT act as a commodity (since it isn't a commodity, it is a currency), though a correction in Gold would be expected and healthy. The U.S. Dollar will now rise from the dead and astound the Dollar bears once again (while the Euro and British Pound are about to get whacked).
I would like to see the $VIX confirm either tomorrow or Friday by breaking through its channel (a weak up day in stocks tomorrow that doesn't make new highs wouldn't be a shocker, and this would leave Friday to confirm):
Without further ado, your free road map to the stock market until mid-summer (18 month daily candlestick chart of the New York Stock Exchange [$NYSA]):
Now I am not saying the March lows will hold in the general stock markets - there's a good chance we go right through them. But this is a minimum downside target for the major indices.
This bear is hungry for some bull meat. GRRRRRrrrrrrrr!