Tuesday, June 23, 2009

More chart fun with Mr. VIX

The resumption of this cyclical bear market in stocks is on like Donkey Kong. I have been following the chart pattern of the Volatility Index ($VIX) like a hawk, as its turn is overdue. Today, a "Golden cross" of the 50 moving average above the 200 moving average occurred on a 60 minute intra-day chart (plot made invisible to highlight the moving average crossing):

Why does something like this have me so excited? It is important to not overanalyze markets (i.e. paralysis by analysis) and a Golden cross is old school, basic technical analysis 101. Rising Mr. VIX means falling Mr. Stock Market almost always. Here, in chart form, is why this cross cemented the resumption of the bear market in my mind after roughly 8 months of a declining $VIX (2 year chart of the 50 and 200 moving averages on a 60 minute intra-day chart with the underlying plot made invisible to focus on the moving averages):

Another nail in the bullish coffin. Gravity is a bitch and the stock market is about to find this out.

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